Search for: All records

Tropical cyclone (TC) models indicate that continued planet warming will likely increase the global proportion of powerful TCs (specifically Categories 4 and 5 hurricanes), increasingly jeopardizing low-lying coastal communities and resources such as the Pelican Cays, Belize. The combination of increased coastal development and continued relative sea-level rise puts these communities at even higher risk of damage from TCs. The short TC observational record for the western Caribbean hampers the extensive study of TC activity on centennial timescales, which hinders our ability to fully understand past TC climatology and improve the accuracy of TC models. To better assess TC risk, paleotempestological studies are necessary to put future scenarios in perspective. Here, we present a high-resolution reconstruction of coarser-grained sediment deposits associated with TC (predominately ≥ Category 2 hurricanes) passages over the past 1200 years from Elbow and Lagoon Cays, two coral reef-bounded lagoons at the northern and southern end of the Pelican Cays; the most southern Belizean paleotempestological site to date. Coincident timing of historic storms with statistically significant coarser-grained deposits within cay lagoon sediment cores allows us to determine which historic TCs likely generated event layers (tempestites) archived in the sediment record. Our compilation frequency analysis indicates one active interval (above-normal TC activity) from 1740-1950 CE and one quiet interval (below-normal TC activity) from 850-1018 CE. The active and quiet intervals in the Pelican Cays composite record are anticorrelated with those from nearby and re-analyzed TC records to the north, including the Great Blue Hole (∼100 km north) and the Northeast Yucatan (∼380 km northwest). This site-specific anticorrelation in TC activity along the western Caribbean indicates that we cannot rely on any one single TC record to represent regional TC activity. However, we cannot discount that these anticorrelated periods between the western Caribbean sites are due to randomness. To confirm that the anticorrelation in TC activity among sites from the western Caribbean is indeed a function of climate change and not randomness, an integration of more records and TC model simulations over the past millennium is necessary to assess the significance of centennial-scale variability in TC activity recorded in reconstructions from the western Caribbean. 

Abstract Proxy‐based reconstructions of long‐term Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) variability reveal low‐frequency oscillations in regional TC landfalls over the Common Era. However, the limited spatial coverage and increased uncertainty of the proxy records complicates assessments of this feature. Here we present a new multi‐ensemble set of synthetic TCs downscaled from the Last Millennium Reanalysis project, which is based on sea surface temperatures that more accurately reflect past conditions. Throughout ensemble members, there are coherent multi‐centennial shifts in landfalls with persistent intervals of increased (decreased) occurrence along the eastern US concurrent with inverse activity in the southwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, associated with basin‐scale redistributions of storm tracks. The emergent TC‐dipole from modeled climate provides context and support for its presence within proxy‐reconstructions. Furthermore, dipole recurrence across ensembles demonstrates that it arises from sea surface temperature‐informed climate processes. However, timing differences between ensembles indicate that transient atmospheric variability influences dipole position. 

Abstract Despite increased Atlantic hurricane risk, projected trends in hurricane frequency in the warming climate are still highly uncertain, mainly due to short instrumental record that limits our understanding of hurricane activity and its relationship to climate. Here we extend the record to the last millennium using two independent estimates: a reconstruction from sedimentary paleohurricane records and a statistical model of hurricane activity using sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We find statistically significant agreement between the two estimates and the late 20th century hurricane frequency is within the range seen over the past millennium. Numerical simulations using a hurricane-permitting climate model suggest that hurricane activity was likely driven by endogenous climate variability and linked to anomalous SSTs of warm Atlantic and cold Pacific. Volcanic eruptions can induce peaks in hurricane activity, but such peaks would likely be too weak to be detected in the proxy record due to large endogenous variability. 

Sediment cores from blue holes have emerged as a promising tool for extending the record of long‐term tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, interpreting this archive is challenging because storm surge depends on many parameters including TC intensity, track, and size. In this study, we use climatological‐hydrodynamic modeling to interpret paleohurricane sediment records between 1851 and 2016 and assess the storm surge risk for Long Island in The Bahamas. As the historical TC data from 1988 to 2016 is too limited to estimate the surge risk for this area, we use historical event attribution in paleorecords paired with synthetic storm modeling to estimate TC parameters that are often lacking in earlier historical records (i.e., the radius of maximum wind for storms before 1988). We then reconstruct storm surges at the sediment site for a longer time period of 1851–2016 (the extent of hurricane Best Track records). The reconstructed surges are used to verify and bias‐correct the climatological‐hydrodynamic modeling results. The analysis reveals a significant risk for Long Island in The Bahamas, with an estimated 500‐year stormtide of around 1.63 ± 0.26 m, slightly exceeding the largest recorded level at site between 1988 and 2015. Finally, we apply the bias‐corrected climatological‐hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the surge risk under two carbon emission scenarios. Due to sea level rise and TC climatology change, the 500‐year stormtide would become 2.69 ± 0.50 and 3.29 ± 0.82 m for SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, respectively by the end of the 21st century. 

Abstract. Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), due to their large volumes of perennially deoxygenated waters, are critical regions for understanding how the interplay between anaerobic and aerobic nitrogen (N) cycling microbial pathways affects the marine N budget. Here, we present a suite of measurements of the most significant OMZ N cycling rates, which all involve nitrite (NO2-) as a product, reactant, or intermediate, in the eastern tropical North Pacific (ETNP) OMZ. These measurements and comparisons to data from previously published OMZ cruisespresent additional evidence that NO3- reduction is the predominant OMZ N flux, followed by NO2- oxidation back to NO3-. The combined rates of both of these N recycling processes were observed to be much greater (up to nearly 200 times) thanthe combined rates of the N loss processes of anammox and denitrification, especially in waters near the anoxic–oxic interface. We also showthat NO2- oxidation can occur when O2 is maintained near 1 nM by a continuous-purge system, NO2-oxidation and O2 measurements that further strengthen the case for truly anaerobic NO2- oxidation. We also evaluate thepossibility that NO2- dismutation provides the oxidative power for anaerobic NO2- oxidation. The partitioning ofN loss between anammox and denitrification differed widely from stoichiometric predictions of at most 29 % anammox; in fact,N loss rates at many depths were entirely due to anammox. Our new NO3- reduction, NO2- oxidation, dismutation, andN loss data shed light on many open questions in OMZ N cycling research, especially the possibility of truly anaerobicNO2- oxidation. 

Abstract The ocean is a net source of N 2 O, a potent greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting agent. However, the removal of N 2 O via microbial N 2 O consumption is poorly constrained and rate measurements have been restricted to anoxic waters. Here we expand N 2 O consumption measurements from anoxic zones to the sharp oxygen gradient above them, and experimentally determine kinetic parameters in both oxic and anoxic seawater for the first time. We find that the substrate affinity, O 2 tolerance, and community composition of N 2 O-consuming microbes in oxic waters differ from those in the underlying anoxic layers. Kinetic parameters determined here are used to model in situ N 2 O production and consumption rates. Estimated in situ rates differ from measured rates, confirming the necessity to consider kinetics when predicting N 2 O cycling. Microbes from the oxic layer consume N 2 O under anoxic conditions at a much faster rate than microbes from anoxic zones. These experimental results are in keeping with model results which indicate that N 2 O consumption likely takes place above the oxygen deficient zone (ODZ). Thus, the dynamic layer with steep O 2 and N 2 O gradients right above the ODZ is a previously ignored potential gatekeeper of N 2 O and should be accounted for in the marine N 2 O budget. 

Abstract Event‐based paleohurricane reconstructions of the last millennium indicate dramatic changes in the frequency of landfalling hurricanes on centennial timescales. It is difficult to assess whether the variability captured in these paleorecords is related to changing climate or randomness. We assess whether centennial‐scale active and quiet intervals of intense hurricane activity occur in a set of synthetic storms run with boundary conditions from an earth system model simulation of the last millennium. We generate 1,000 pseudo sedimentary records for a site on South Andros Island using a Poisson random draw from this synthetic storm data set. We find that any single pseudo sedimentary record contains active and quiet intervals of hurricane activity. The 1,000‐record ensemble average, which reflects the common signal of climate variability, does not. This suggests that the record of paleohurricane activity from The Bahamas reflects variability in hurricane frequency dominated by randomness and not variability in the climatic conditions.